The Canadian Housing Market: What's Driving the Story?

When the housing market feels harder than usual to read, it helps to have someone who spends their days looking under the hood.

On the latest episode of REAL TIME, the two Shauns reunite as the Canadian Real Estate Association’s (CREA) senior economist Shaun Cathcart sat down with REAL TIME host Shaun Majumder to dissect the numbers and get to what REALTORS® should know. Once they get going, they talk about current housing market conditions, buyer and seller expectations and why local context matters.

Cathcart’s message was measured: uncertainty is still influencing buyer and seller behaviour, but there are encouraging signs beneath the surface (mirroring CREA’s adjusted 2026-2027 forecast).

At the national level, Cathcart said sales had a weak start to the year in January, February and March, before improving slightly in April. One of the most notable trends, he explained, is the sale-to-list price ratio—a metric that can help show how closely home buyers and sellers are aligning on price.

According to Cathcart, a couple of years ago some sellers were still anchored to peak-market expectations, while buyers were working with tighter affordability. Today, he said, that gap appears to be narrowing.

Buyers and sellers are seeing more eye-to-eye these days. Under the surface of some quiet numbers, those trends are really encouraging, and homes are moving faster.”

Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist 

Cathcart also pointed to stabilizing prices as a potentially important milestone. 

He noted price declines were larger in January, smaller in February, smaller again in March and, “basically flat,” in April. For buyers, that can make a difference. Fewer people want to enter the market if they feel prices are still trending downwards.

Of course, the national picture only tells part of the story.

Cathcart emphasized the importance of local expertise, noting that market conditions can vary significantly by region, city and neighbourhood. While Canada’s number of months of inventory sits at five, right in line with the long-term average, that balance does not necessarily reflect what’s happening in all regions.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, for example, Cathcart said listings are at a 20-year low and the province is seeing double-digit price growth. In markets like that, demand can outpace supply and create multiple-offer scenarios, particularly when several buyers are competing for the same type of home.

For REALTORS® and their clients, that local nuance matters. National headlines can provide useful context, but clients need their REALTOR®’s help understanding what the data means for their specific situation.

Despite this, homeownership demand remains strong. Cathcart referenced research discussed in a previous REAL TIME episode with David Coletto, which showed that 90% of Canadians under 30 still want to own a home. 

For CREA, he said, a major part of the advocacy message is about restoring the pathway to homeownership. That includes building more of the right kinds of homes: family-sized, medium-density and ownership-oriented options that meet the needs of people who want to put down roots.

Cathcart’s outlook is realistic, but not pessimistic. 

Some may remain cautious while broader economic uncertainty continues, but the Canadian market is showing signs of adjustment. Buyers and sellers are moving towards each other when it comes to price expectations, homes are moving faster in some regions, and local conditions continue to shape the story.

For more insights, listen to the full episode; and, for the latest housing market data visit CREA’s Stats.